Time-Dependent Performance Trajectories of Residential Buildings under Climate Change
Residential buildings designed to comply with winter-oriented efficiency standards increasingly struggle to maintain safe indoor conditions during summer heat stress and under long-term climate change. Conventional regulatory frameworks treat building performance as a static compliance outcome rather than a dynamic trajectory shaped by irreversible structural design decisions. This study reconceptualizes residential performance as a time-dependent process influenced by envelope mass, ground coupling, and evolving climatic conditions.
Experimental Design and Monitoring Framework
The research is based on full-scale experimental monitoring of two identical residential test buildings differentiated by envelope thermal mass and floor-ground interaction. Continuous performance measurements were conducted to capture seasonal energy behavior and indoor thermal responses, particularly under extreme summer conditions. This empirical foundation enables robust comparison of structural design strategies.
Seasonal Asymmetry in Thermal Performance
Results reveal pronounced seasonal asymmetry between winter efficiency and summer resilience. The thermally massive, ground-coupled configuration exhibits modest and bounded winter energy penalties compared to the lightweight building. However, these minor winter drawbacks are offset by substantial gains in summer thermal stability, with all overheating indicators remaining below critical thresholds during an extreme heat event.
Life-Cycle Carbon Assessment over a 75-Year Horizon
A prospective life-cycle assessment (LCA) extending over 75 years was conducted to evaluate cumulative carbon performance. The analysis identifies a temporal reversal in emissions trajectories: although the lightweight configuration demonstrates superior initial efficiency, increasing cooling demand over time leads to higher cumulative emissions. After approximately 15–16 years, the heavier, ground-coupled building surpasses the lightweight alternative in long-term carbon performance.
Thermal Resilience and Long-Term Mitigation Synergies
The findings demonstrate that structural strategies enhancing passive thermal resilience—such as increased thermal mass and ground coupling—can simultaneously strengthen climate adaptation and long-term mitigation outcomes. Rather than representing a trade-off, resilience-oriented design choices can produce compounded environmental benefits over the building lifecycle.
Implications for Time-Aware Performance Frameworks
This study highlights the enduring consequences of early architectural decisions and underscores the limitations of static compliance-based standards. It advocates for performance-based, time-aware assessment frameworks that integrate operational resilience, life-cycle carbon accounting, and climate projections. Such approaches are essential for aligning residential building design with long-term sustainability and climate adaptation objectives.
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